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Feb 17, 2026
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WATCH
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Bosa states, "No more lazy software investing. You got to go with these companies that are thinking about how to integrate these new tools." The broader software sector is in a "sell-off," and the rising tide no longer lifts all boats. Investors must actively filter for companies that integrate AI threats (like Figma) versus legacy SaaS companies that are simply being displaced. WATCH. Do not buy the broad sector index; strictly select companies with clear AI-integration roadmaps. AI disruption accelerates faster than legacy companies can pivot. |
CNBC
Figma announces new partnership with Anthropi...
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Feb 17, 2026
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LONG
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Figma stock is up over 4% after announcing a partnership with Anthropic that allows users to convert AI-generated code (from Claude) into editable Figma designs. The market previously viewed Generative AI as an existential threat to design software (why design if AI can code it?). This move flips the narrative: Figma becomes the essential "human-in-the-loop" layer where AI output is refined and shipped. By embracing the disruptor (Anthropic), Figma turns a competitor into a feature. LONG. The partnership validates Figma's survival strategy in an AI-first world. Execution risk on the integration; continued broader software sector sell-off. |
CNBC
Figma announces new partnership with Anthropi...
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Feb 17, 2026
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LONG
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Anthropic is the chosen partner for Figma's "Code to Canvas" feature. This partnership cements Anthropic's utility in the professional enterprise workflow, moving it beyond a simple chatbot to a core infrastructure component for software development and design. LONG (via private shares or proxies if available). Regulatory hurdles or competition from OpenAI. |
CNBC
Figma announces new partnership with Anthropi...
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Feb 17, 2026
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LONG
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China is "building out the entire ecosystem" from frontier models (Alibaba's Deep Six, ByteDance's video gen) to domestic chips and humanoid robots that are "far more fluid and precise" than previous iterations. The market underestimates China's ability to compete across the *entire* stack. Alibaba is open-sourcing powerful models, and domestic hardware is successfully powering advanced robotics, reducing reliance on US tech. Long Chinese tech leaders (BABA) and the broader sector as they prove resilience and innovation despite sanctions. Increased US export controls or sanctions; regulatory crackdowns within China. |
CNBC
China's Lunar New Year tech showcase...
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Feb 17, 2026
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LONG
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There is a "global shortage" in memory chips with prices up "90% in a single quarter." Apple is reportedly in talks with Chinese chipmakers (MTK, CSMT) to fill the gap. When the world's largest buyer (Apple) is forced to seek alternative Chinese suppliers, it confirms a massive supply/demand imbalance. This pricing power directly benefits established memory manufacturers like Micron (MU). Long the Memory Sector and MU to capture the super-cycle in pricing. Overproduction in late 2026; faster-than-expected capacity expansion from Chinese competitors. |
CNBC
China's Lunar New Year tech showcase...
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Feb 17, 2026
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LONG
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It is "still Nvidia's world" for the most advanced training chips. The Trump administration is considering allowing sales of older-generation chips to China. The strategic logic (attributed to David Sacks) is that total blockades force China to build their own alternatives (like Huawei's Ascend). Selling older chips keeps China dependent on US architecture while generating revenue for Nvidia. Long NVDA as it retains the training crown and may regain access to the Chinese market for legacy products. China successfully replacing Nvidia completely with Huawei Ascend chips; US government refusing to relax export controls. |
CNBC
China's Lunar New Year tech showcase...
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Feb 13, 2026
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WATCH
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"If the high volume, everyday workloads, if they're moving off of Nvidia hardware, that is important. It changes the investment thesis." Nvidia remains the "gold standard" for training (building models), but the real long-term volume lies in inference (running models). If OpenAI and others successfully shift inference to cheaper competitors like Cerebras or internal chips, Nvidia loses the largest segment of future AI compute demand. Watch for signs of eroding market share in the inference segment, which could compress margins or slow growth despite training dominance. Nvidia's CUDA moat remains strong, and they are still "foundational" to OpenAI's business. |
CNBC
OpenAI unveils first AI model running on Cere...
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Feb 13, 2026
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LONG
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"Google's serving Gemini on its own custom AI chips TPUs. Microsoft just launched its own, and Meta is rolling out custom chips across its data centers." The shift to custom silicon for inference allows these hyperscalers to decouple their cost structure from Nvidia's pricing power. This vertical integration improves gross margins and operational control as AI scales to "hundreds of millions of people." Long the hyperscalers as they successfully execute on hardware independence, reducing CAPEX intensity relative to compute output. Custom chip development is capital intensive and may lag Nvidia's performance improvements. |
CNBC
OpenAI unveils first AI model running on Cere...
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Feb 13, 2026
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LONG
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Google shipped Gemini 3 on its own TPUs; Meta and Microsoft are shipping their own silicon. OpenAI is "dating other people." By successfully deploying internal custom silicon for inference, these hyperscalers reduce their blended compute costs and reliance on external vendors. This margin expansion is bullish for their long-term profitability. LONG. Vertical integration of silicon improves unit economics for AI services. Internal chip development is capital intensive and technical failure could set them back years against competitors using Nvidia. |
CNBC
AI firms like OpenAI seek Nvidia alternatives...
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Feb 13, 2026
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LONG
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Companies are "smiling at Nvidia with one hand and signing deals with Cerebras, Broadcom, and AMD with the other." Hyperscalers and AI labs are desperate to diversify supply chains and reduce costs. As the market bifurcates into Training (Nvidia) vs. Inference (Efficiency), alternative chipmakers (AMD) and custom silicon partners (Broadcom) capture the high-volume inference market share that Nvidia is "ceding." LONG. These are the direct beneficiaries of the "Anyone but Nvidia" trade for inference workloads. Nvidia could aggressively price-cut older generation chips to defend inference market share. |
CNBC
AI firms like OpenAI seek Nvidia alternatives...
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Feb 13, 2026
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WATCH
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OpenAI is now running inference for specific models on non-Nvidia chips (Cerebras). Deirdre notes that while Nvidia wins the "Flagship" (Training), it is "ceding ground in the volume game" (Inference). Inference is a recurring cost, whereas training is a one-time cost. As AI scales to millions of users, the bulk of CAPEX shifts to inference. If Nvidia loses the monopoly on inference to cheaper alternatives or custom silicon, their pricing power and volume dominance deteriorate. WATCH/CAUTIOUS. The narrative is shifting from "Nvidia takes all" to "Nvidia for training, others for inference." Nvidia's Blackwell chips remain the gold standard for high-end compute, and demand still outstrips supply. |
CNBC
AI firms like OpenAI seek Nvidia alternatives...
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Feb 12, 2026
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WATCH
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xAI "lost the co-founder who ran safety" and currently has "no dedicated safety function." Like OpenAI, xAI is stripping away safety brakes to maximize speed. This increases the probability of a catastrophic error or "hallucination" in their models, which Bosa notes is "consequential right now because the models are starting to improve themselves." WATCH (Safety/Tail Risk). Lack of safety guardrails leads to a product failure that invites government crackdown. |
CNBC
AI insiders sound the alarm on safety...
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Feb 12, 2026
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LONG
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Anthropic donated $20M to a Super PAC specifically to support "guardrails like kids safety, chip export controls, and transparency rules." Bosa notes this is "on brand" and "helps them" differentiate. In a market increasingly concerned about "self-improving models" and "Terminator fears," Anthropic is building a strategic moat by positioning itself as the "adult in the room." If regulation tightens (as the backlash suggests it might), Anthropic is best positioned to comply and capture enterprise market share from risk-averse clients. LONG (Strategic Positioning/Brand Equity). Over-regulation could stifle innovation speed compared to competitors; the "China argument" (speed is necessary for national security) could prevail in Washington. |
CNBC
AI insiders sound the alarm on safety...
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Feb 12, 2026
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NEUTRAL
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A former OpenAI researcher warned that putting ads in ChatGPT is "the Facebook playbook all over again." While intended as a warning about safety/ethics, this comparison implicitly validates the ad-supported revenue model for AI. It suggests the industry is moving toward Meta's monetization structure, which is financially proven but politically sensitive. NEUTRAL (Contextual Reference). Regulatory scrutiny on ad-based AI models. |
CNBC
AI insiders sound the alarm on safety...
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Feb 12, 2026
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WATCH
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OpenAI dismantled its safety team, researchers are resigning citing "ethical concerns," and the company is pouring $125M into a PAC to block state regulation. The company is aggressively prioritizing speed and dominance (the "Facebook playbook" of ads and growth). While this drives short-term progress, the "internal civil war" and loss of key talent create significant reputational and operational tail risks. If a safety incident occurs, OpenAI will be the primary target for regulators. WATCH (High Regulatory & Execution Risk). Successful deregulation lobbying could allow them to compound their lead unhindered. |
CNBC
AI insiders sound the alarm on safety...
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Feb 12, 2026
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WATCH
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An "internal safety civil war" is going public. Safety researchers are quitting OpenAI and Anthropic, warning that models are now "improving themselves" and posing existential threats. OpenAI has dismantled its "mission alignment team." The industry is pivoting from "safety first" to "commercialization first" (the "Facebook playbook"). While this accelerates revenue (bullish), the exodus of safety talent and warnings of "chemical weapons" capabilities creates significant tail risk. If a model causes real-world harm, the regulatory pendulum could swing violently back toward restriction. WATCH. The "Acceleration" camp (OpenAI/PLTR) currently has the momentum and capital, but the "Safety" camp (Anthropic) is highlighting risks that could trigger a black swan event. Regulatory crackdown following a safety failure; loss of key talent slowing innovation. |
CNBC
AI’s high-stakes safety divide...
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Feb 12, 2026
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LONG
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Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale, alongside OpenAI and Andreessen Horowitz, poured $125 million into a PAC to lobby for a "single federal AI standard" that overrides state laws. Bosa notes they "have the White House behind them." Palantir is actively shaping the regulatory environment to favor federal preemption. A unified federal standard (vs. a patchwork of 50 state laws) significantly lowers compliance friction for enterprise/government AI deployment. The massive funding advantage ($125M vs. Anthropic's $20M) and White House alignment suggests the "accelerationist" camp is winning the political battle. LONG. Palantir is positioning itself as a rule-maker, not just a rule-taker. Public backlash if a major AI safety incident occurs; potential for strict federal regulations instead of loose ones. |
CNBC
AI’s high-stakes safety divide...
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Feb 11, 2026
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LONG
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Deirdre highlights that AI-native companies like Anthropic are "disrupting companies that still have tens of thousands of people on the payroll" while operating with only a "fraction of the people" (e.g., 4,000 employees). If the gap between "possible" and "here" is collapsing, value will accrue to the efficient, AI-native disruptors who can execute technical work without the bloat of legacy firms. Long the AI Sector (and specific disruptors) as they gain market share from legacy tech through superior unit economics. Regulatory crackdowns on AI displacement or overvaluation of private AI firms. |
CNBC
Viral AI disruption post sows division...
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Feb 11, 2026
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SHORT
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Deirdre reports that the market is "selling the stocks that AI progress is coming for," explicitly citing Salesforce (which cut 1,000 jobs) and Workday (which cut 2% of its workforce). These job cuts are framed as a symptom of disruption. The viral thesis suggests AI is replacing technical work, making high-headcount "System of Record" companies inefficient compared to AI-native disruptors. The market is pricing in this existential risk by selling the incumbents. Short or Avoid legacy SaaS companies that are "being disrupted" and forced to shrink headcount to survive. These companies may successfully pivot to AI-driven efficiency (as Benioff suggests), turning headcount reductions into margin expansion rather than revenue loss. |
CNBC
Viral AI disruption post sows division...
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Feb 11, 2026
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WATCH
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Deirdre notes that "Amazon has said the same" regarding the ability to replace large numbers of people with AI. Amazon is grouped with Salesforce in the conversation about replacing labor with AI. However, unlike the legacy SaaS examples, Amazon is also a major AI infrastructure provider. The signal is mixed: are they a bloated incumbent cutting costs, or an aggressive adopter increasing efficiency? Watch to see if headcount reductions signal distress (disruption) or margin optimization (efficiency). Misinterpreting bullish efficiency measures as bearish disruption signals. |
CNBC
Viral AI disruption post sows division...
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Feb 11, 2026
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SHORT
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"The market is essentially backing this guy up, saying, if AI can do the work, you don't need the software or the people who run it." Salesforce cut 1,000 jobs; Workday cut 2% of its workforce. The "seat-based" SaaS business model is threatened. If AI agents replace human workers, companies need fewer software licenses. The market is pricing in this existential risk to legacy "System of Record" companies. SHORT. These companies are viewed as "victims of AI disruption" and are actively shrinking headcounts while underperforming. AI integration into these platforms could eventually be accretive if they successfully pivot to agent-based pricing. |
CNBC
AI disruption fears rattle stocks...
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Feb 11, 2026
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LONG
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"The race among top AI companies... is only accelerating." Anthropic has only ~4,000 employees but has caused "billions and billions in disruption." Value is shifting from labor-heavy legacy firms to lean, capital-efficient AI model providers. These companies generate massive disruption with a fraction of the overhead. LONG. These are the engines of the disruption, capturing the value lost by the software and services sectors. Regulatory hurdles or rapid commoditization of the models themselves. |
CNBC
AI disruption fears rattle stocks...
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Feb 11, 2026
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SHORT
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"Startup Altruist launched an AI tax planning tool yesterday, and it took billions off wealth management stocks." High-margin financial services (like tax planning) are being automated by AI. This commoditizes the service, destroying the pricing power and moat of traditional wealth management firms. SHORT. The market is "not waiting to find out who's right" and is selling incumbents immediately upon the release of competitive AI tools. Incumbents may acquire these startups or replicate the tools quickly. |
CNBC
AI disruption fears rattle stocks...
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Feb 10, 2026
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SHORT
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A startup called Altruist launched an AI-powered tax planning tool that does in minutes what advisors charge thousands for. The speaker notes, "That is all the market needs right now to reprice an entire sector," specifically citing Schwab selling off. The market views AI as a deflationary force for professional services. If AI commoditizes high-margin advisory and tax planning tasks, the "moat" of traditional brokerages and wealth managers erodes, leading to margin compression and customer churn. Negative sentiment is currently dominating this sector; any new AI fintech announcement acts as a catalyst for selling incumbents. The startup (Altruist) fails to gain adoption, or incumbents like Schwab successfully integrate similar AI tools to defend their turf. |
CNBC
U.S. vs. China AI spending gap widens...
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Feb 10, 2026
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LONG
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"In China, breakthroughs are being priced exactly the opposite as an opportunity." A new video model from ByteDance fueled a rally in media and gaming stocks, whereas similar news from Google caused a sell-off in the US. Investors in China view AI as a supply-side enabler that lowers content creation costs (CAPEX reduction) for gaming and media giants, rather than a competitive threat that replaces the companies themselves. Contrarian Long. The market is rewarding Chinese tech for AI integration, creating a divergence trade against US counterparts. Regulatory crackdowns by the CCP or US sanctions on chip hardware slowing down model development. |
CNBC
U.S. vs. China AI spending gap widens...
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Feb 10, 2026
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SHORT
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"The software sector as a whole is getting decimated because every AI breakthrough here is being seen as a threat." Second-order thinking suggests that if AI can write code or automate enterprise workflows (like the Monday.com example mentioned), the "seat-based" pricing model of SaaS companies is in danger. The market is pricing in terminal value risk for software firms that don't own the underlying model. Momentum Short. The narrative has shifted from "AI benefits Software" to "AI replaces Software." Oversold bounce if earnings show AI is actually increasing seat retention. |
CNBC
U.S. vs. China AI spending gap widens...
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Feb 10, 2026
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WATCH
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US Big Tech is spending $500B+ on AI, while China spends $70B but still ships competitive models (like GLM on Huawei chips). The market is asking, "What if you don't need to spend that much?" If Chinese firms prove that competitive Frontier Models can be built cheaply, US Hyperscalers may face a de-rating due to massive capital inefficiency and ROI concerns. Watch for CAPEX guidance. If efficiency doesn't improve, the "spend at all costs" narrative may break. US models prove vastly superior in capabilities, justifying the spend. |
CNBC
U.S. vs. China AI spending gap widens...
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Feb 10, 2026
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LONG
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Following Bytedance's release of "Sea Dance 2.0" (video generation), "Chinese AI, media and gaming stocks they all surged... priced as an opportunity." Unlike the US, Chinese markets view AI as a productivity multiplier that will lower costs for media and gaming companies. Additionally, the lower capex burden ($70B vs $500B) implies better capital efficiency and less risk of cash-flow destruction. LONG. The market is rewarding the "efficiency" and "application" phase of AI in China, contrasting with the "infrastructure bloat" fear in the US. Geopolitical sanctions or regulatory crackdowns by the CCP on tech sectors. |
CNBC
U.S. vs. China AI spending gap widens...
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Feb 10, 2026
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SHORT
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Deirdre notes that when Google released "Project Genie" (AI world generation), "You had Unity, Roblox, Take-Two all falling... The entire US software sector is in freefall." The market views generative AI as a displacement threat rather than an enhancement for US gaming and software incumbents. If AI can generate interactive worlds from a prompt, the value proposition of coding engines (Unity) or existing gaming ecosystems (Roblox) is perceived to be at risk of obsolescence. SHORT. Sentiment is currently punishing US software incumbents as "killable" rather than beneficiaries. AI tools could eventually prove to be margin-accretive for these companies if they successfully integrate them, reversing the narrative. |
CNBC
U.S. vs. China AI spending gap widens...
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Feb 10, 2026
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WATCH
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US Big Tech is spending over $500B on AI, while Databricks CEO states Chinese models are "right behind us and they're basically free." This highlights a massive ROI risk. If US Tech is spending half a trillion dollars to achieve "Frontier" status, but "Good Enough" models are available for a fraction of the cost, the US Hyperscalers may be over-investing in a commoditized asset. The market is asking, "What if you don't need to spend that much?" WATCH (Negative Bias). If the narrative shifts to "AI is a commodity," the massive capex spend will be viewed as capital destruction, compressing multiples. The "Frontier" models may achieve a capability jump (AGI) that "Good Enough" models cannot replicate, justifying the spend. |
CNBC
U.S. vs. China AI spending gap widens...
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Feb 09, 2026
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SHORT
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The rise of AI agents is "fuel for the software bears." Monday.com dropped 22% on a disappointing outlook, and Workday's stock has lost nearly half its value over the past year. Historically, companies paid SaaS vendors because building software internally was too hard. Now, AI agents allow non-tech companies (like AT&T or Mercedes) to build their own custom software cheaply and quickly. This shrinks the competitive advantage (moat) of traditional software-as-a-service vendors. Databricks data shows 80% of databases are built by agents; the IGV software ETF is lagging significantly. Traditional vendors may successfully integrate AI to retain value, or the "build vs. buy" trend may revert if internal tools prove difficult to maintain. |
CNBC
Databricks finishes $5 billion funding round ...
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Feb 09, 2026
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LONG
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The massive increase in software creation by agents is a "big data point for the AI infrastructure bulls." Even if software stocks struggle, the underlying "plumbing" is essential. AI agents writing code and building databases require immense amounts of computing power and chips. The demand is real, regardless of current market sentiment. Charts showing iOS app releases and GitHub coding output are both "going vertical." Market sentiment may temporarily disconnect from the fundamental demand for compute. |
CNBC
Databricks finishes $5 billion funding round ...
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Feb 09, 2026
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AVOID
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Responding to an analyst downgrade regarding Microsoft Copilot, Bosa notes that paying extra for Copilot is an "uphill battle." While enterprises are willing to pay for revolutionary coding tools (like Claude Code or OpenAI's Codex), Microsoft has not effectively sold Copilot as a tool leading the "AI coding revolution." The value proposition for the extra cost is currently unclear compared to specialized coding agents. Analyst downgrades and skepticism regarding the ROI of Copilot subscriptions. Microsoft could retool or rebrand Copilot to better align with the agentic coding boom. |
CNBC
Databricks finishes $5 billion funding round ...
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Feb 06, 2026
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WATCH
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These mega-cap tech stocks are "getting punished" and trading lower despite the AI boom. Investors are spooked by the massive price tag of AI development. These companies are spending heavily ($600B combined projected for the top 4) to build infrastructure, but the revenue returns aren't arriving fast enough to satisfy the market. Meta is spending $0.50 of every dollar on AI infrastructure (double Amazon's ratio), yet Amazon is currently facing a steeper sell-off. Meta's free cash flow could be halved this year due to this spending. If the "infrastructure buildout" thesis (championed by Jensen Huang) proves correct, these companies are simply investing in the necessary foundation for the next era of computing, making the sell-off a potential overreaction. |
CNBC
Megacap tech stocks sells off as AI spending ...
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Feb 06, 2026
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SHORT
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General software stocks are "getting absolutely crushed." This is a displacement trade. The market believes AI is becoming "too good" and will functionally replace the utility provided by many existing software service companies, rendering their business models obsolete. N/A (General market observation). AI adoption may be slower than anticipated, or legacy software companies may successfully integrate AI to survive. |
CNBC
Megacap tech stocks sells off as AI spending ...
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Feb 06, 2026
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WATCH
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The market is "clearing out the old guard" to make room for new autonomous/AI-native companies. The pace of AI progress is accelerating. Things deemed impossible for AI are being achieved weeks later. This suggests the next generation of "billion-dollar companies" (like OpenAI and Anthropic) will capture the value lost by legacy tech. "One person, billion-dollar company" is now within sight due to AI leverage. These companies are currently private; investors must wait for IPOs to access them directly. |
CNBC
Megacap tech stocks sells off as AI spending ...
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Feb 06, 2026
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WATCH
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OpenAI is preparing for a potential $1 Trillion IPO, and Anthropic is reportedly in early talks to go public. Currently, the market is guessing about the profitability of pure-play AI. When these companies file for IPOs, they will be forced to open their books. This will reveal the "hard numbers"—revenue, margins, and burn rates—finally confirming or denying if the AI business model makes economic sense. Reports of upcoming public filings. If the disclosed numbers show unsustainable burn rates or low margins, it could crash the broader AI sentiment across the entire market. |
CNBC
The market's AI contradictions...
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Feb 06, 2026
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LONG
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The market is selling "old winners" (SaaS) and "big spenders" (Big Tech) to make room for a new set of companies not yet priced in. New AI-native companies are being built on top of models like OpenAI and Anthropic. Because AI allows for extreme efficiency, we may soon see "one-person billion-dollar companies." Capital is likely rotating from legacy tech into these efficient, high-growth newcomers. Insight from Guillermo Rauch (CEO of Vercel) regarding the efficiency of building on top of LLMs. These companies are largely private or early-stage, making access difficult for retail investors. |
CNBC
The market's AI contradictions...
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Feb 06, 2026
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NEUTRAL
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Despite strong top-line growth, these stocks are being punished. Amazon is down 9% despite AWS growing at its fastest pace in three years. Investors are spooked by the massive capital expenditure required to compete in AI. While revenue is growing, spending is growing faster, compressing margins and free cash flow. The market is struggling to reconcile the cost of building AI with the future payoff. Meta is spending $0.50 of every revenue dollar on infrastructure. Meta's operating margins fell from 48% to 41% year-over-year, and free cash flow dropped 15%. Amazon has a backlog up 38% but is still seeing its stock drop. If these companies prove that the massive spend leads to immediate monetization, sentiment could reverse quickly. |
CNBC
The market's AI contradictions...
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Feb 06, 2026
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AVOID
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Software stocks are described as being in "freefall." The market believes AI technology has become so advanced that it will "eat these companies alive." If AI can automate the tasks that SaaS platforms currently perform, these companies face an existential threat of obsolescence. The segment highlights the sharp sell-off in this sector specifically due to the "AI destroys SaaS" narrative. The market may be overestimating how quickly AI can fully replace complex enterprise software suites. |
CNBC
The market's AI contradictions...
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